आए तो यूँ कि जैसे हमेशा थे मेहरबान, भूले तो यूँ कि गोया1 कभी आश्ना2 न थे
-Faiz Ahmed Faiz
1- Jaise , 2-Acquaitance
Faiz may have not thought it this way but this para from his poetry describes the behaviour of our equity market in a very beautiful way. When the bull run starts, markets behave as if there is not looking back and it will continue forever; something that we saw in the last equity rally between 2014-2017. The second line explains the bearish phase which started from 1st Feb 2018; wherein the markets took a U turn post Feb 2018 and since then we have not seen any signs of recovery.
When the markets are in bullish phase, we stop looking at valuations, corporate governance issues, etc. and during bearish phases we start doubting the best of companies. This happens in every market cycle and will happen in future also. The only way to get saved from this euphoria of getting carried away in either direction is following asset allocation strategy.
Once you have identified your goals and you are aware of your risk-taking ability, decide on an asset allocation strategy and follow that religiously. Asset allocation strategy simply means that dividing your investments in debt and equity depending on your risk profile and how far or near your goal is. For e.g. In a bull run, mid and small caps tend to outperform large cap funds but that does not mean that we move our entire portfolio to mid and small caps. Same way we should not move our entire portfolio in large caps when markets are not in our favour. In equity allocation, your portfolio should be divided between large caps, multi caps and mid-caps. Though one can change the allocation by 15-20% up or down depending on the market scenario; one should never change the entire portfolio.
Same way one should never have his entire portfolio in equity or in debt. It should be a mix of both the asset classes. There is no defined rule for how much equity or debt one should hold as that will depend on each individual but as a thumb rule your debt allocation should not be more than your age. So, if you are 40 years old, your debt portfolio should be around 40%. Again, this is just a thumb rule and will completely depend on each and every individual as per his risk profile and how far or near his goal is.
Its highly risky to keep your entire portfolio in equity as during these bearish phases which we are witnessing now where large caps have corrected by 10-15%, mid cap by 30-40% and small caps by 50-70%; the probability of losing your capital increases. Same way if your entire portfolio is in debt then you restrict your money to grow. For e.g. if your goal is 10 years away, it is criminal to invest in debt funds. For such goals you should invest in equity funds and for goals which are say 2-3 years away one should invest in debt fund. This way you will reduce the impact of market volatility and put your money to best use.
While doing asset allocation considering your risk-taking ability is of utmost importance; followed by your return’s expectations. The amount of risk that you can take depends on your inherent nature and it’s difficult to increase it or decrease it, whatever said and done. It’s easier to invest the way your friend or colleague is investing but seldom we know their risk appetite. When one invests without considering their risk-taking ability, the chances of taking wrong investment decision increases. You will either sell too early or wait too long.
The most important key to successful investing can be summed up in just two words-asset allocation. – Michael LeBoeuf